Oakland Raiders Watch 2010 Archive- Week 13

Originally Published - November 30, 2010

Updated - December 4, 2010

Who will win? Take the poll at the bottom of the page!

Heading into week 13, the Raiders have fallen to 3rd in the AFC West after being soundly defeated by the Miami Dolphins 33-17. Meanwhile, both the Chiefs and the Chargers took care of business. The Chiefs pounded the Seahawks 42-24 and the Chargers shocked the Colts 36-14, handing the Colts their first home loss of the season.

If you read Raider Watch 2010: Week 12, you know that this in not what I expected.

"Second, the Raiders host the hapless Miami Dolphins on Sunday. The Dolphins Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, and Brandon Marshall are all injured with Pennington being placed on IR and Marshall and Henne listed as questionable.

Playing Miami in Oakland should provide a good tune up for their re-match at San Diego on December 5th. San Diego will be looking to even the score at home after being defeated by the Raiders earlier in the season 35-27."

Obviously, my assessment was profoundly incorrect! Even without Chad Pennington, and Brandon Marshall and with Chad Henne in his first game back from injury Miami was able to do everything that Oakland wasn't.

Instead of this being a "tune-up" game for the Raiders it was a slap in the face to wake up those of us who had fooled into thinking the Raiders had turned a corner during their 3 game winning streak.

So, going into their game against the Chargers this week in San Diego the Raiders are in danger of falling 3 games behind Kansas City who play the impotent Denver Broncos in Kansas City.

The Raiders simply cannot afford to lose to any division opponents at this point. What a difference a week can make!

I've seen it too many times in the sport of football. A coach, with two quarterbacks of apparently equal skills, picks one for whatever reason. Maybe something he sees in practice, maybe some potential he thinks he sees in the player, maybe he just flips a coin, who knows?

But, in games whatever the coach saw doesn't translate into wins. Then, the starter gets hurt and the back-up comes in and starts winning. Inevitably, the back-up has one bad game and he's out and it back to the starter and the team falls back into mediocrity. Or worse, the team falls completely apart. But the coach sticks with the starter no matter how bad of a game he has (17-32 1 TD & 2 INTs in a 33-17 drumming).

If you look at my "Keys to Success" portion of Raiders Watch 2010 for week 12, I said that one of the things the Raiders needed to do to have success was:

"3. Jason Campbell needs to settle down and get back into the rhythm that led to three consecutive games with over 200 yards passing."

But after one bad game (Against the 8-3, AFC North Leading Steelers) Cable pulled Jason Campbell in favor of Gradkowski. What was he thinking?

Let's look at the Raiders season prior to last Sunday's game.

Week 1: (Loss) Tennessee 38, Oakland 13. Campbell was 22 of 37 for 180 yards with 1 Int. (Cut him a break, it was his first regular season game as an Oakland Raider and if the other team scored 38 pts, but you only threw one INT, I think you can point a finger elsewhere on the team)

Week 2: (Win) Oakland 16, St. Louis 14. Campbell was 8 of 15 (53%) for 87 yards (5.8 yards per attempt) with 1 INT. before he was pulled in favor of Gradkowski. Gradkowski was 11 of 21 (52%) for 162 yards (7.7 yards per attempt), with 1 TD & 1 INT. (They won, but it was a pretty weak showing by both quarterbacks. Both threw and interception and were pretty close in passing percentages with the edge going to Campbell by a very slim 1%. But Gradkowski did toss a touchdown so he must be "The Man.")

Week 3: (Loss) Arizona 24, Oakland 23. Gradkowski was 17 of 34 (50%) for 255 yards (7.5 yards per attempt), with 1 TD & 1 INT. Campbell didn't play.

Week 4: (Loss) Houston 31, Oakland 24. Gradkowski was 24 of 39 (62%) for 278 yards (7.1 yards per attempt), with 2 TD's & 2 INT's. Campbell didn't play. (So, a guy goes 24 for 39 with 2 picks in a loosing effort and you don't pull him and give the back up a chance? Actually, I was fine with the decision at that point in the season. Let the guy play his way into a rhythm. One bad game's no reason to pull a QB. Only it wasn't one bad game, in fact Gradkowski hasn't had a good game this season. At this point in the season he was 52 of 94 (55%) with 4 Interceptions and 2 losses in three games.)

Week 5: (Win) Oakland 35, San Diego 27. Gradkowski was 1 of 7 (14%) for 14 yards (0.5 yards per attempt), before leaving the game with a shoulder injury. Campbell was 13 of 18 (72%) with 1 TD & No INT's. (The defense and special teams were stellar and this win has to go to them, but Campbell was effective with a 72% completion rate, a touchdown and no Interceptions for a Quarterback rating of 117.6!)

Week 6: (Loss) San Francisco 17, Oakland 9. Campbell was 8 of 21 (38%) for 83 yards (4 yards per attempt) and 2 INT's. (This was admittedly an all around bad game not only for Campbell but for the Raiders in general.)

But here's where things get interesting!

Week 7: (Win) Oakland 59, Denver 14. Campbell was 12 of 20 (60%) for 204 yards (10.2 yards per attempt), 2 TD's and no INT's. (Cambell had a quarterback rating of 127.9)

Week 8: (Win) Oakland 33, Seattle 3. Campbell was 15 for 27 (55%) for 310 yards (11.5 yards per attempt), 2 TD's and no INT's. (Cambell had a quarterback rating of 120.9)

Week 9: (Win) Oakland 23, Kansas City 20 (OT). Campbell was 19 for 33 (57%) for 229 yards (6.93 yards per attempt), 1 TD and 1 INT. (This game was battle with arguably the Raiders toughest opponent to that point in the season. Campbell had a rough game but still managed 229 yards through the air and behind his leadership, the Raiders pulled out the win in overtime and suddenly the Raiders are tied for first in the AFC West and 3-0 in division play.)

Week 10: Bye

Week 11: Pittsburgh 35, Oakland 3. Campbell started the game and was pulled late in the third after going 7-19 for 70 yards and 1 INT against the Steelers #5 ranked defense. Gradkowski wasn't much of an improvement going 13 - 24 with 1 INT. (So naturally, after three straight wins, including one of the biggest margins of victory in team history, Tom Cable benched Campbell after one bad game in favor of Gradkowski . . . Right?????? If this makes sense to you please re-read my comments after my "Week 4" analysis.)

Week 12: Miami 33, Oakland 17. Gradkowski played the entire game and went 7-32 ( 22%!) with 1 TD and 2 INT's, earning him a QB rating of 63.5. (So, all things being equal why didn't Cable pull Gradkowski to see if Campbell could get something going? Well because Gradkowski's Cables "Guy" and he's gonna stick with him through thick and thin, winning be dammed!)

The Raiders are 1-3 with Gradkowski in the game (Actually 2-3 as he started the San Diego Game, but he went 1-7 before leaving the game at the end of the first quarter with a shoulder injury so I'm crediting that win to Campbell). Gradkowski's lone earned win was against the now 5-6 St. Louis Rams. His losses were against Arizona (3-8), Houston (5-7) and Miami (6-5)

With Campbell at the helm the Raiders are 4-3 with wins against San Diego (6-5), Denver (3-8), Seattle (5-6), and the AFC West leading Kansas City Chiefs (7-4). That includes a 3 game streak with blow-out wins over Denver and Seattle and culminating with an outstanding overtime win against the Chiefs.

So the guy had a bad game against the leagues 5th best Defense. Let's lynch him! Cut him! Trade him! Okay, just relegate him to the bench and return to mediocrity with the Gradkowski! (Campbell has been pulled twice in favor of Gradkowski once in Gradkowski's sole win (16-14) over the St. Louis Rams and once in the 35-3 loss to the Steelers.  Gradkowski has never been pulled in favor of Campbell even after going 7-32 with 2 interceptions against Miami.)

The simple fact is, that whatever happens in practice or whatever it is that Tom Cable sees in Gradkowski it has not translated into wins on the field. On the other hand, Campbell led the Raiders to 4 out of 6 including a 3 game winning streak and wins over all three of their AFC West opponents. I don't care what a guy does in practice, where he was drafted, or how much he's making. All that matters is W's and Campbell has four, Gradkowski has one.

In two weeks the Raiders went from being in control of their own destiny in the AFC West to the brink of missing the playoffs again and all in spite of the fact that they're undefeated in division play!

Offense:

1. Plain and simple . . . Put Jason Campbell back at the helm and leave him there!

2. The Offensive line must play error free football, give the QB time and open holes for the RB's.

3.  Establish the run early and control the clock.

Defense:

1. Control the line of scrimmage

2. Pressure, Pressure, Pressure!  If Rivers gets into a rhythm, it's going to be a long day for the Raider Nation.

3. Contain the Chargers running game.

4. Keep the Chargers offense off the field.

Bruce Gradkowski (QB - Shoulder) suffered a third degree separation of his right shoulder in Sunday's loss to Miami and is Out for Sunday's game at San Diego.

Nnamdi Asomugha (CB - ankle) was present at Wednesday's practice and is listed a questionable. I expect Asomugha to play in Sunday's game at San Diego.

Zach Miller (TE - foot) was present at Wednesday's practice and is listed a questionable. I expect Miller to play in Sunday's game at San Diego.

Chaz Schilens (WR - Knee) was present at Wednesday's practice and is listed a questionable.